Let’s Not Rush into War

Let me start by thanking Ethiopia First for giving the current issue of Ethiopia vs Mogadishu Jihadists the appropriate emphasis. It is also very encouraging to see that the distinction between party politics and issues of national interest getting clearly outlined. I will try to raise some points which, I think, were overlooked while most of us were busy showing our proud culture of rallying together against external aggressors.

The leaders of UIC in Mogadishu have made their intention about Ethiopian Somali areas crystal clear from the beginning. But so is their intention towards Somalis in Kenya. I have not heard much about their stand about Djibouti, even though half of that country is ethnic Somalis and they are represented by one of points of 5 edges on the star in Greater Somalia’s flag. I have no reason to believe that south eastern Ethiopia means more than north eastern Kenya to a Somali nationalist. Yet the tension with Kenya is surprisingly lower than that of with Ethiopia. We have to ask ourselves if the way we (or the Ethiopian government) have been dealing with situation has something to do with the whole drama. Let’s ask ourselves what the Kenyans have done so that they are not as threatened as we are. Besides, Puntland and Somaliland would be the first obvious targets for a Somali nationalist starting from Mogadishu unless otherwise we polarize them by declaring our readiness for war every now and then.

EPRDF, in particular Meles, is trying to exploit this unholy confrontation with Somali Jihadists in more ways than one. It is unfortunate that they are putting the interests of the country that they are leading well after their party’s and personal ambitions to stay in power or to have the backing of the West as anti-terror champions. The west has time and again shown that they want to paint the conflict merely as a battle ground for Ethiopia and Eritrea while secretly hoping that Ethiopia fights their war against any advances by Muslim extremists in the horn of Africa. I doubt if Ethiopia can cleverly manipulate the West, like Pakistan is doing, so that the country benefits economically by being an ally for the “war on terror”. Contrary to what we would like to believe, we are not that strategically important for the USA.

It seems that the threat of war brings many Ethiopians of differing opinions together better than anything else. I can only hope that this readiness to defend our motherland moves on to our other enemies like poverty, AIDS … In all the opinions I have heard or read, not a single person is unaware of the cruel casualties that could follow. Our fathers have bravely fended off different aggressions with far superior ammunition. That does not mean that bravery is enough to go through a devastating war in these modern days. It is now all about economy! I don’t have to say a thing about how good our economy is to finance the smallest of wars. Let’s not also forget who could be behind the UIC – it will not be Eritrea alone. It is not only the question of how many years of economic development we will waste; I don’t see why we are certain of a victory at the end should a war break out.

That brings me to the implications of this conflict. The cause is clearly a border conflict between two neighboring countries that happen to have people speaking the same language on both sides of the border. But that unfortunately is only the tip of the iceberg. We have historically been seen as the Christian enemy of Somalia even though only about 10% of Kenyans are Muslim, where as the percentage is 5 times more in Ethiopia. So there is no way that we could avoid the involvement of Islamic powers (both moderate and extremist), if indeed the conflict escalates. Seeing that the West with all its resources have failed in such a situation, we can only ill afford to risk that. Being a half Muslim country, it is not the wisest thing to rush into a confrontation which can easily be, and is already, painted with religious colours.

I am not saying that there is no threat posed from UIC, I am only afraid that we are making this threat even more real and eminent by declaring our preparedness for war if need be. The instant reaction to Prime Minster Meles’ speech on the streets of Mogadishu testifies to that. Let’s debate the issue and see it from differing perspectives before we rush to show our “bravery and readiness to defend our mother land”.